Football Alchemy

Accumulator

A series of bets placed as one. Each selection must be successful to win overall.

Eg,

Tiger Woods to win the US Open, Barcelona to win the Champions League and Swansea to be relegated from the Premier League might be backed at 16/1.

Usually results in low likelihood of wins but very good payoffs when they come in.

Arbitrage (← click for article)

Profiting by backing 2 (or more) opposing results at prices that give a guaranteed win.

Eg.,

FA Cup Final, Stoke are to play Birmingham.

William Hill offer 2.05 that Birmingham will lift the Cup, Stoke can be backed at 2.2 (after commission) to do the same on Betfair.

Betting £482.35 on Stoke returns £1061.17

Betting £517.65 on Birmingham returns £1061.17

Whatever happens, £1000 has been turned into £1061. 6.1% profit with zero risk!

Backing

Simply ‘betting on’.

Eg., backing Man Utd means betting that Man Utd will win

Bank/bankroll

Total amount you have to bet with. Somebody with a £1000 bank may consider placing a £30 bet on a selection. Recommended stakes are often expressed as a % of your bank.

Banker

A bet that is considered a guaranteed win. “Barcelona are playing Accrington Stanley. Playing full strength team so home win is a banker”

Also, a bet that you would put your entire bank on to maximise win.

Betting Exchange

Normally internet based, betting exchanges match bets between backers and layers and profit from charging a commission on winnings.

Betfair is the biggest sports betting exchange currently.

Commission

Fee charged on winnings, payable to the betting exchange or bookmaker. Typically range between 2-5%. Check out this post on the effects of commission on odds.

Compounded Returns

Reinvesting your profit into future bets. If your system has a positive return on investment then this is the best way to multiply your wealth.

Einstein supposedly said that “compounding is the most powerful force in the Universe” and Warren Buffett, one of the world’s richest people says one of his philosophies in both finance and other areas of life is to find an edge and repeat the action until your position has increased exponentially (he calls this snowballing).

Edge

Your advantage over the market price. Often calculated as a bettors return on investment (RoI). Finding an edge in sports betting is essential to success.

Favourite

The selection that has the best chance of winning according to the market. The lowest priced selection.

Form

How a team is currently performing. Often looks at the results from last 5 games.

Hedging (Also: Trading Out/Greening Up)

Placing an opposing bet to your original one at a different price to guarantee profits or cut your losses.

Laying

The opposite of ‘backing’. It can be viewed as either betting that a selection will lose or as taking the opposite side of a bet.

With any bet there is both a ‘backer’ and a ‘layer’. Traditional bookmakers have always been the ‘layers’ of bets, offering the ‘backer’ odds. Betting exchanges bring the backer and layer together and match bets.

Multiples

See ‘Accumulators’

Nap

The ‘best bet’ offered by a tipster.

Odds

The price offered for an outcome to occur. Usually represented as decimal (eg., 2.0) or fractions (eg., 3/2). The odds show what multiple of your stake you will get back if you win.

They also represent the predicted likelihood of each outcome occurring. This likehood (%) can be caluclated by 100/odds.

Eg., if the odds that Liverpool will beat Newcastle away are 2.14, this reflects a likelihood of 46.7%.

Over-round (also, vigorish/vig)

The over-round is a bookmaker’s profit margin built-in to their odds. With odds representing likelihood, the sum of all outcomes should be 100%. This is rarely the case!

Real-life example:

England 1.36 (73.5%) – Draw 4.75 (21.05%) – Switzerland 8.5 (11.76%)

Adding these together gives 106.31%. The bookmaker has a 6.31% over-round on this market – with bets on each outcome balanced they will make over 6% profit on all the money staked guaranteed!

Position Size

How much you bet on an outcome occuring. For example, if you bet £50 at odds of 3/1, your position size would be your stake of £50.

Position size has replaced stake or money management as a popular term as the importance of the size of your position to the long-term success of your betting system has become increasingly apparent.

Price

See ‘Odds’.

True Odds

Odds represent both the return on your stake and the likelihood of the outcome occurring.

If the price for a Liverpool win is 2.0, this suggests a 50% likelihood of them winning.

The True Odds are the ‘real’ likelihood of Liverpool winning. If this is 66% (true odds therefore being 1.5), you have an excellent value bet.

Finding the true odds for an event is close to impossible. Still, getting closer to the theoretical true odds than the rest of the betting market will still give you a huge edge.

Value

The price advantage you are getting over True Odds. See ‘edge’