The Football Alchemy Engine
Jul 6th, 2011 by footballalchemy
How do we come up with the odds for football matches and work out where the value is?
The answer is with ‘The Football Alchemy Engine’! A computer program that takes data and uses it to price up games.
The information we take into account includes:
- Number of wins, draws and losses in total and home/away
- Current form (over the last 5 games)
- The team strength, based on a rating system
This information is then combined, or blended, to give predicted likelihoods for each outcomes. We convert these to decimal odds and compare them to the prices offered by bookmakers to work out the value.
The Football Alchemy Engine now incorporates a position sizing element which tells us how much to put on each bet depending on its expected Return on Investment.
